Lloyd's post BYU Assessment.

     I waited until after dark to head down to Jake's. The game was over, the outcome was a difficult to accept 33-28 defeat on a Hail Mary as time ran out.
     Now I know how Northwestern felt, a couple of years ago.
     I love going to Jake's after games, before games, when soccer is the only thing on in March, it's kind of like Lincoln's Mos Eisley Cantina, though slightly less scummy and villainous.
     It was also pretty unlikely that I'd find any BYU fans in a whiskey-serving, smoke-filled cigar bar where the drinks smokes and smokin' hot women inflame sinful desires.
     I like being inflamed. I also appreciate the necessity of sinful desires, without them, I'm out of business.
    
     When I got there, Lloyd had a corner booth all to himself. Him and his laptop, anyway. His scrolling finger looked swollen and there was a half-empty beer glass on the table.
     I slid into the opposite side, tilted my hat back and asked, "Rough day at the office? Whatchu drinking, there? You only drink when you are really upset."
     Lloyd continued to scroll, took his time to answer, was probably calculating the probability of my genuine concern versus the odds that I was just messing with him. I put it at 40/60. "Zip Line Nz IPA," he finally replied. "I'm not really upset," he added. "I'm somewhat upset and it was hot, in there, today, so I ordered an India Pale Ale as the ideal way to combat the hot conditions."
     I leaned forward and started moving his glass around, "Just how many of these things have you had? Three? Four, maybe?" I asked. "You better slow down, or I'll have to get you out of the tank with all the frat boys and other hardened criminals."
     "Ha...ha...ha", his sarcasm was evident. "I pace myself, and I know my limit."
     "Ok, ok, ok, no need to get defensive, although it is nice to see somebody do it when they need to," I jabbed and retreated out of range.
     Lloyd, looked up, lifted the glass to his lips with his left and slowly drained the last of his ale, with his right hand, he raised the single-finger salute with a flourish that would make a Kansas State band member proud.
     Further engagement was prevented when Tess, one of the waitresses showed up at the table. Tess is awesome. She's about 5 foot one, shoulder length blond hair, always wears a white tank top and black jeans. She's always accurate with the orders, gives a generous pour to her regulars that treat her right and bikes everywhere she goes and has the thighs to prove it. She is also absolutely fearless, I have seen her throw herself between two guys to prevent a fight. She stood up to, and backed down a guy that she was giving up a foot in height and at least 100 pounds in weight. "You guys need anything?" she asked in a quick, but unhurried manner. Professional is what I'd call it.
     "A High West double rye, and make it a double, please," I requested. "And another Zipline Nz for my churlish friend. I have apparently wounded him, and need to make amends."
     Tess left to gather the drinks. "Break it down for me. Was this an absolute train wreck, or what?"
     "No, not a train wreck," Lloyd said, after thinking about it. "Shouldn't have lost, though."
     "All right, lets break it down by phases. Did the offense do enough to win the game."
     "Short answer, yes. They scored 28 points and generated over 350 yards of offense, with a short field following a turnover."
     "But?"
     "Inconsistency. Moving almost at will in the first quarter, sputtering for a quarter and a half, catching fire again in the third and getting way too conservative in the fourth."
     "The penalties sure didn't help, and they were all legit, except for that 'unsportsmanlike conduct' during the INT return, I thought that was a little ticky-tack since Sutton got hurt on a play where he got hit after he relaxed and that didn't draw a flag."
     Lloyd sighed, "12 penalties for 90 yards. When Bo was in charge, fans said it was a reflection of his lack of personal discipline. With Riley, I'm hoping it's guys trying to learn a whole new offense and not that they're just too stupid to remember the rules."
     Tess brought our drinks. I slipped her my card and told her to keep it open, Lloyd was rolling.
     "What about Tommy?" I asked. "He had a pretty good game, and his passing looked better than last year."
     "Decent, not great. He went 24 of 41 for 319 yards, three TD's and a pick. I wont even hold the pick against him because the BYU defender made a great play and it was virtually a punt on a long third down situation."
     "Buuuut," I said.
     "Two intentional grounding penalties, when he feels pressure up the middle, he turns his back to the field to try to escape, instead of keeping his eyes downfield. Both of the penalties came as he just tried to heave the ball to no-where to avoid the sack, one of these days, that will result in a pick six."
     "How about the ground game?"
     Lloyd just shook his head, "To be fair, they were going against a defense that ranked 20th nationally, against the run. The o-line isn't great to begin with," he said. "The same five guys played every down, which tells me there is no depth. Each of the running backs showed flashes, but none screamed to me, 'just give me the damn ball'. They weren't helped by the play-calling, at a few points. Calling a sneak on 3rd and 2 didn't make sense to me. Calling a sneak and then punting at mid-field didn't make much sense to me."
    "I thought the receivers did pretty well," I said.
     "Yes. No drops, and some excellent individual effort. Jordan's touchdown was pure effort, that play was dead, and he turned it into six. They were generally getting open, and when Tommy had time to find them, the ball was generally on target."
     "So what is your overall assessment?"
     "I don't want to read too much into one game, but the mechanics are there for this to be a good passing offense. The o-line needs to be tweaked, Tommy needs to break his bad habits and a running back needs to step up and 'be the man'. Right now, I'd say this is a 6-6 offense."
     "How about the defense?"
     "The line is good, but needs to finish plays where they pressure the quarterback. Too often it was only one guy breaking through, the qb avoiding him like a dancing bear, and buying time to throw. The linebackers were pretty solid, especially with Rose-Ivy out. Only a couple of times that they missed on their responsibilities. Those couple of times really hurt, though."
     Lloyd took a long draw of his IPA. "The defensive backs weren't terrible, but they weren't great, either. Gerry's pick was awesome. The corners were overmatched all day. the BYU receivers were taller, and fast enough to make double-moves work. All of BYU's big passing plays came at the expense of the corners. They were in position, for the most part, but those taller receivers climbed the ladder to get to the high point, all day."
     "Tell me about the Hail Joseph Smith."
     Lloyd shook his head. "The DC called the text-book defense. Rush three, drop eight guys back in order to have numbers against five receivers, Play works far less often than it fails, so the odds are with the defense, anyway. Just Like Kellogg to Westerkamp shouldn't have worked, this play shouldn't have worked, either. That being said, I don't understand, and have never understood why a defense doesn't blitz from the outside, make the qb get the ball out of his hands. It may have been a Pyrrhic victory for BYU. They lost Taysom Hill for the season with a foot fracture. They might finish 6-6 as well."
     "Last but not least, special teams," I said.
     "Coverage was good on both kicks and punts. Punters did a fine job, Foltz until he got hurt, and Broekmeier did ok, considering it was his first full-speed action. Drew Brown makes me want to chew chalk. I'm not putting the game on him, the offense and defense could have done more, too. We're just not used to being surprised when the kicker makes a field goal. Field goal kicking has been so solid here, for so long, I just don't know what to make of it. He gets glowing reviews for his leg strength and what he does in practice, but it's not translating to the game. He came into the game with a 14/21 success rate, .667, which is like a really bad free throw shooter. He finished the game 14/23, which is now .609. When it comes to kickers I don't want the first word I think of to be 'unreliable'."
     "Based on what you've seen, so far, what does the season look like?" I asked.
     Lloyd thought for a moment, "Four definite wins, four definite losses, three swing games, so anywhere from 4-8, which will have pitchforks and torches on O street, to 7-5. with a chance to win 8 in a bowl game. which will have the grumbling about the 'right hire' kept to a rumble."
     I drank my Rye and let that sink in. If Lloyd is only cautiously optimistic about 8 wins, it might be a long fall. It might keep me busy, though.